Written By Brian Wang of nextbigfuture.com
Amory Lovins wrote the Energy Strategy : The Road not Taken? in 1976 for Foreign Affairs.
Cogeneration at that time was 4% of the energy of the United States. It is now 18%, and Amory now calls it micropower. Amory talked then of coal, conservation and soft technologies (wind and solar) reducing energy demand and squeezing oil and gas usage. He also called for the elimination of nuclear energy. He also indicated that there would be reduced use of some capital intensive energy sources. He has repeated the mostly the same points in his new Reinventing Fire proposal to eliminate oil and coal usage by 2050.
Here is what actually happened with US energy. The US energy usage is 7-11 quadrillion BTU lower because of imports from China of energy intensive manufacturing.
65,900 Twh of nuclear power has been generated around the world. The US has generated about 17,000 TWh of nuclear energy. Nuclear has saved 3 million lives from reduced fossil fuel air pollution around the world and about 500,000 lives in the United States. The US has only completed or turned on 6 reactors since 1990.
The US has also not built many more coal plants but has run the existing plants harder so that they generated more power and used more coal. Coal waste and fossil fuel air pollution are very deadly. They have been and continue to kill, make people sick and cause property and other damage. Mercury and toxic metals stay deadly forever and have no halflife. Radioactive material in dry casks has not killed anyone and the actinides can be used as fuel in new types of reactors.
The US has also built a lot of natural gas power.
Amory Lovins was wrong about would happen in energy 1976 and wrong about what is and what is not dangerous and deadly.
Worldwide energy consumption and demand will increase. The EIA is still projecting increased usage of coal power and oil. Nuclear, renewables and efficiency are all needed to blunt the growth of fossil fuel usage.
The world will spend over$13 trillion on energy infrastructure over this decade. The world will spend another $6 trillion on fossil fuel subsidies which are not included in that $13 trillion. the world can afford nuclear power.
75% of the new nuclear construction is outside the OECD. Look at the costs in China, India, Russia where most of the build is going. In those places the costs are $1400-2000 per KW. Russia uprated reactors for $200 per KW. (added 311 MWe). They will add another 300 MWe with another set of reactor uprates. Not the equivalent of a full large reactor from those uprates but the point is the cost without western style regulation was ten times less.
Note : all of the reactors. Even the ones in Russia, China etc... now all have containment domes and upgraded safety and other features. I am thus confident in their safety, especially when compared the deadliness of fossil fuels.
Modern generation 3.5 reactors are made out of about 300 factory produced modules which can be built in 4 years from the point that the physical build begins. Annular fuel pebble bed reactors from China, nuclear power uprates and factory mass produced small reactors will enable nuclear power to contribute more to the worlds growing energy needs.
Eliminate oil and coal usage by 2050?
You must mean, learn to live with out oil and coal by 2050. In the next few decades supply's of oil and coal will not be able to keep up with mans growth.
At best we are on a mathematically provable, unsustainable course. That in fact makes global warming and the pollution problems look like a mild snow storm in march.
I spent years, starting in 1968, being concerned about pollution and global warming. When after taking a look at the big picture. We do not have enough fossil fuel to cause any permanent damage...
The big ouch comes when not if we run out of fossil fuels.
Prof. Albert Bartlett has about the best explanation I've seen so far. So if it's fact's and undeniable proof you seek.
Check this out, Dr.Bartlett is years ahead of you.
Prof. Albert Bartlett- http://www.albartlett.org
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Bartlett
one-hour lecture, "Arithmetic, Population and Energy: Sustainability 101"
The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See
http://youtube.com/view_play_list?p=6A1FD147A45EF50D
More information.
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
by Prof. Al Bartlett
1978 with 1998 overview
http://www.albartlett.org/articles/art_forgotten_fundamentals_overview.html
Posted by: Steve Shoop | August 09, 2010 at 05:09 PM